A Call for an Inquiry.

There's always Investigations Into What Went Wrong.

There should be Investigations Into What Went Right.

De-stigmatise 'Investigations' into simply a neutral process of gathering information.

Step 3: Assess the Information.

The Widget is at the Centre of the Picture.

'After the course, students also told fewer personal narratives and stories and instead worked to interpret the images using only the evidence before them. In physical examinations, it's important for clinicians to remove this type of bias..'

- Craig Klugman, Bioethicist and Medical Anthropologist

In an attempt to develop their observation skills, health care professionals were taught an art appreciation course modelled on one taught to children.

Participants were shown art works and asked:

•  What do you see?
• What do you see that makes you think that?
• What more do you see?

The students who took the course discussed emotion less and made more medical observations, using more clinical language. They also noticed more about how their patients presented.

Step 4 of the Five Steps to Good Decision Making is Check for Bias.

We can't Assess the Information (Step 3) before us if we don't see it.

We can't share it with others and seek their advice if we don't have an objective language that doesn't contaminate the information with our personal anecdotes and opinions.

We can't assess its relevance to our Widget if we're distracted by a bias.

Good Decision Making requires us to have the technical skills and self-awareness to remove ourselves from the frame and put the Widget at the centre of the picture.

Good Decision Making in one word: Look.

The President Gives a Lesson on the Five Steps.

'Today the United States, together with our allies and partners, has reached a historic understanding with Iran which, if fully implemented, will prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon. As President and Commander in Chief I have no greater responsibility than the security of the American people. And I am convinced that if this framework leads to a final comprehensive deal it will make our country, our allies, and our world safer.'

- President Barack Obama announcing the Iran Nuclear Agreement.

President Obama begins a twenty minute explanation of a major decision by reminding his bosses - the American people - and the rest of the world, of his Widget:

'The security of the American people.'

He is saying 'There are many Widgets that may not be served by my decision and therefore as many critics of it. So when you're evaluating my decision and its criticisms, remember my Widget that you elected me to serve.'

He proceeds to explain to the American people and the world - his good decision making.

He's the most powerful person on earth - and yet unlike many lesser bosses - he doesn't rely on his positional power to get what he wants done.

He shows his working out. 'You may not agree with my decision,' he is saying, 'but at least you can see how I arrived at it.'

Most importantly the President is saying:

'I am going to share with you all the information that I have. I trust you - everyone from the Wall Street Banker to the farmer in Oregon - to be smart enough to see how I reasoned my way to this decision - as if you had been sitting alongside me at every table along the negotiating pathway to my decision.' That's a profound statement of both self-confidence and trust. 

President Obama addresses four of the Five Steps to a Good Decision.

(We shouldn't expect any decision maker - particularly the President of the United States - to reveal her Step 1. To do so would risk undermining the purpose of the First Step: to allow the decision maker to purge themselves of emotions that may detract from her ability to address the decision on its merits. 'I ranted to the First Lady about how stubborn the Iranian leaders were and how political and pig-headed Congress is, and then had a couple of stiff drinks before watching a couple of episodes of West Wing followed by ten laps of the White House pool and several covert cigarettes in the Rose Garden while the Secret Service kept a look out. Then I went back to work making my decision.')

Step 2: Define the Issue. (Also the first job of a leader: Define reality.)

'By the time I took office, Iran was operating thousands of centrifuges, which can produce the materials for a nuclear bomb. And Iran was concealing a covert nuclear facility.'

In other words - 'My Widget, the security of the American people - wasn't being made.'

Step 3: Assess the Information.

'Because of our diplomatic efforts, the world stood with us, and we were joined at the negotiating table by the world's major powers: the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia and China as well as the European Union.'

In other words 'I won't bore you with all the technical details in this speech, however other nations have looked at the same information that we did - and come to the same conclusions.'

Step 4: Check for Bias.

'In [my] conversations [with Congress], I will underscore that the issues at stake here are bigger than politics. These are matters of war and peace. And they should be evaluated based on the facts, and what is ultimately best for the American people and for our national security.'

In other words 'I'm not doing this for my own ego or glory or to ensure my place in history. What better way to prove this than for me to argue my case before Congress and teach Congress the same lesson of objectivity.' (We teach best what we most need to learn. If we want to ensure we're not being biased, teach someone else how to rid themselves of bias.)

Step 5: Give a Hearing.

'Given the importance of this issue, I have instructed my negotiators to fully brief Congress and the American people on the substance the deal. And I welcome a robust debate in the weeks and months to come.'

In other words 'Let me know if you've got anything to add to my thinking and the many decisions that still need to be made.'
 

President Obama began by defining reality. He concludes as all good leaders do - by saying Thank You.

'And most of all, on behalf of our nation, I want to express my thanks to our tireless — and I mean tireless — Secretary of State John Kerry and our entire negotiating team. They have worked so hard to make this progress. They represent the best tradition of American diplomacy.'

The Decision Black Box Data Recorder.

A decision crashes to earth shortly after execution.

Shredded, mangled and smouldering plans and assumptions, and splintered egos lie strewn across the impact area, that is soon roped off with yellow and black tape marked with 'MISTAKE: DO NOT CROSS.'

Expectations - customers, clients, staff,  connecting decision-makers - wait in vain to greet the decision at its scheduled outcome, then demand answers as to What Went Wrong and Who To Blame.

Connecting decisions are delayed across the decision making network, each spreading its own ripples of disruption.

Similar models of decisions are postponed or cancelled for fear that they share a fatal defect.

News of the failure affirms the procrastinators, cynics and equivocators' Fear of Trying. They celebrate by smugly busying themselves drafting agenda items for another meeting to discuss meeting formats.
 

What happened?

A naive inquirer ducks under the 'MISTAKE' tape and picks her way past the debris of opinions, conjecture, conspiracies, myths, recriminations, and folklore scattered for as far as rumour and fear can exaggerate.   

She's searching for the Decision Making Black Box.
 

Good decision making is a deliberate process of inquiry that advances you towards where you want to be.

The Process of Inquiry - the Five Steps to a Good Decision - is the 'Black Box' Data Flight Recorder equivalent in decision making.

In the aftermath of a decision, the decision maker can review each of the Five Steps that led to the decision, identify any element that may have contributed to the decision not having the expected outcome, and learn from it.

Did Step 1 allow enough time for the decision maker to purge herself of emotions that may have contaminated her decision?

Did Step 2 accurately identify what the issue was - usually by finding a specific source of power to make the decision - or was the decision maker distracted by 'topics' or personality politics?

Did Step 3 gather, verify and inquire into enough relevant information?

Did Step 4 diligently and soberly seek out any biases that may have influenced the decision maker away from acting in the best interests of her Widget?

Did Step 5 identify all the people who might be affected by the decision and allow them to be heard on what the decision should be?

If the decision maker has the Five Steps she can review and learn from about why the decision didn't achieve the outcome she hoped for, then that knowledge can be applied to the next decision to make it more effective.

If, on the other hand, the decision is made like 45% of decisions are - by gut instinct or positional power, then there is no process of inquiry - no 'black box' - to learn from.

It should be routine for decision makers to review the decision making process to find out what can be learned from them and done differently next time, even when the decision did achieve the intended outcome.

It's Good Decision Making - a process that can reviewed and improved, and therefore advance us towards where we want to be. 

Good Decision Making Lite.

Following Five Steps to a Good Decision too steppy?

Choose one then.

Step Back before making your decisions, 

or

Name the Issue before making your decisions,

or

Assess the information before making your decisions,

or

Check for Bias before making  your decisions,

or

Give a Hearing before making your decisions,

Apply just one.

You'll be a step closer to where you want to be.

The Self-Cleaning Decision.

'We should also pay particular attention to the first decision we make in what is going to be a long stream of decisions...When we face one decision it might seem to us that this is just one decision without large consequences. But in fact, the power of the first decision can have such a long lasting effect that it can percolate into our future decisions for years to come. Given this effect, the first decision is crucial and we should give it an appropriate amount of attention.'

- Dan Ariely, Predictably Irrational

It's rarely practical to trace and review the great-great-great-great grandmother Decision that gave birth to the successive generations of decisions right down to the one that is now in labour in our brain.

The Five Steps to a Good Decision perform the kind of audit recommended by Dan Ariely without the need to identify and scrutinise the First Decision.

In Step 1, we remove our finger from the fight-or-flight trigger and surrender to the surrounding forces of emotions. We allow them to capture us so we can wallow in our solitary confinement of self-pity. We don't even try to put on the camouflage of reason and return to the decision making front. We lie on our bunk and sulk.

In Step 2, purged of our inward looking selfish emotions, we return to the external task at hand - serving our Widget - and name the issue before us that is relevant to our Widget work. We focus on what needs to be done today, and not what we did yesterday.

In Step 3, we assess the information that we have today, and gather more if we need it with an inquiring mind. We're looking at facts and data, not precedent.

In Step 4, we check for bias. We deliberately scan our thinking for anything that is obscuring our view of our Widget. We're filtering out echoes from past decisions.

In Step 5, we allow a hearing. We invite anyone who may be affected by our decision to go over our reasoning and see whether it supports our likely conclusion. We're bringing in an external reviewer to see if our options are backed up by data.

The Five Steps not only lead us to a good decision, they self-clean our brains of any residue that may taint the next decision. 

Be attentively curious.

The YouTube Test.

Ray Rice is a professional American football running back who is regarded as one of the best ever players for the Baltimore Ravens.

In February 2014 he assaulted his fiancée. The particulars of the assault were on the public record following his arrest.

In July 2014 the NFL suspended Rice for two games for violating its personal conduct policy by assaulting his fiancée.

In August 2014 the NFL Commissioner said that he 'didn't get it right' when giving Rice a two game suspension. He announced that in future such behaviour would attract a higher punishment. A six game suspension. 

In September 2014 a video was posted online showing Rice punching his fiancée to unconsciousness.

The Ravens subsequently announced that his contract with its team had been terminated. The NFL said that he had been suspended indefinitely. 

The NFL and the Ravens got new information and changed their minds. That's okay.

The new information?

Instead of the world reading that Ray Rice punched his fiancée in the face the NFL and Ravens knew that the world can see Ray Rice punch his fiancée in the face.

Let's test our declarations of commitment to transparency, integrity, values, accountability etc.

Next time you're considering - in Step 3 of the Five Steps to a Good Decision - a response to information that's in an email, phone call, letter or meeting - Imagine: 

• Converting the information into a story and then a screenplay.
• Filming the screenplay.
• Posting the film to YouTube.

It's not your decision making process that the world will watch (boring) - it's the information that you're assessing. It's watching Ray Rice punch his fiancée instead of reading about it.

Wondering whether or how to discipline a staff member? Upload to your imagination. Post. Tweet. Watch.

The YouTube test isn't designed to encourage literal transparency or openness.

It's a forcing function that jolts us out of our deep grooves of unthinking responses to information so that we might see and respond to it in a different way.

Power.

'The law always limits every power it gives.' 

- David Hume

Step 2 of the Five Steps to a Good Decision: Name the Issue.

It's only an Issue if you have the power to make a decision in support of your Widget.

Ask: What power do I have? 

Look for it in your contract.

Look for it in your policies.

Look for it in what your boss has said she expects of you.

No power? Then there is no Issue and therefore no decision required of you. Inform someone who does have the power.

Power?

Then ask:

What are the conditions or restrictions on the exercise of that power? 

Welcome them. They give focus. Quieten the noise.

If you have a power - you have limits.

Be clear on what they are.

(You'll often find them in your Values.)

Then continue to Step 3.

Three.

'Intelligence is the ability to recognise a better argument than your own.'

- Anonymous

The third of the Five Steps to a Good Decision is to Assess the information.

‘Investigation’ has sinister, negative overtones.  

‘We’re carrying out an investigation.’

‘We’re being investigated.’  

These all imply that someone has done something wrong.

Yet no decision should be made without gathering as much information as we can – ie investigating.

An investigation can be as simple as a telephone call, a conversation, reading a policy, an email asking questions, seeking expert advice – or as detailed as a royal commission.

What information do you need to decide what to do?

What information do you need to make your Widget?

What is important is the attitude that you take to the gathering of information.

Be curious.

Take the position of the ‘naïve inquirer’.

Seek the advice of experts, more experienced people, policies and procedures.

Be inquisitorial not adversarial.

Aim to learn rather than blame.

Distractions.

Good decision making in three words:

Be attentively curious.

Curiosity is about asking questions.

Attention - according to neuroscientists - is about suppressing distractions rather than enhancing what you're paying attention to.

It's all about the Widget.

Remember the Five Steps.

Step 1: Step Back. Indulge in the distractions. Don't suppress them. Romp in all the feelings and irrational thoughts that won't get the Widget built but that are distracting you from doing so. Be selfish. Purge. Be human. Be yourself.

Step 2: Identify the Issue. Return to the Widget. Start earning your pay. Start asking questions.

Step 3: Assess the Information. Data. Policies. Logic. Cool. Questions.

Step 4: Identify Bias. Am I being distracted by something irrelevant to the Widget? Questions.

Step 5: Give a Hearing. Hey! Affected person! Proof read this! Have I missed anything? Questions.

Questions suppress distractions by forcing us to listen to answers - and by zooming in on the parts of the answers that are Widget relevant.

Make the Decision. Become who you are.

Remove the distractions from everyone who's relying on the decision so that they can do their jobs.

It's called Leadership.